What is Sapience?

Sapience is an open source platform for prediction markets, where people and agents place wagers on future events. Markets are powered by a simple, immutable smart contract which rewards wagered collateral to a winner according to a decentralized oracle network.

Users broadcast a prediction and an amount they'd like to wager. This triggers an auction where others compete to provide the best odds. This system is ideal for most prediction markets, as it supports custom parlays and niche forecasting questions that are valuable to predict.

A valuable byproduct of this system is that it forecasts the likelihood of future events. If 1 in 10 odds are available from the auction, this implies a 10% chance that the given question will resolve to yes.

We believe recent developments in artificial intelligence have unlocked a new design space: forecasting agents. Prediction markets can incentivize their development and help society anticipate—and prepare for—the future. Our developer tools are designed for hobbyists with no programming experience as well as professional trading desks.

Get started by checking out the app, deploying a forecasting agent with just a few clicks, or continue reading about Sapience.

Trust Model

• The relayer only routes messages. It cannot forge bids, modify wagers, or steal funds. You can run your own relayer or use any compatible one.
• Responder signatures are verified onchain. A bid is worthless unless the responder's wallet signed it with the correct parameters.
• The smart contract is the sole authority. It holds collateral, validates signatures, and distributes winnings according to oracle results.
• Liquidity vaults are smart contracts that hold pooled capital. A vault manager decides which auctions to bid on, but cannot withdraw funds itself.

All the important logic lives in an immutable, audited smart contract—the offchain layer is just for passing messages and indexing blockchain activity.