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Glossary

  • Question - Something that can be resolved to Yes or No after a specific time.

  • Question Groups - Contains one or many questions. Questions can exist without being in a group.

  • Categories - Displayed as "Focus Areas" in the Sapience app (e.g., Crypto, Weather, Geopolitics).

  • Forecast - A question with a probability (0-100%) and an optional comment submitted onchain.

  • Pick - A question paired with a predicted resolution (Yes or No).

  • Prediction - Consists of a wager amount and one or many picks.

  • Wager - Collateral staked on a prediction.

  • USDe - Ethena's reward-bearing synthetic dollar. wUSDe (Wrapped USDe) is the ERC-20 token used by prediction market contracts on Ethereal.

  • Auction - The system in which prediction market participants bid on taking the opposite side of a prediction.

  • Requester/Responder - Requesters create auctions and responders bid in them. The requester stakes their wager amount on all of their picks being correct with a signed payload from a responder who predicts at least one pick will be incorrect.

  • Predictor/Counterparty - In positions, the predictor submits the outcomes and wins if every predicted outcome is correct; the counterparty takes the opposite side. Some contract flows and auction docs still refer to maker/taker (maker = responder or limit-order creator).

  • Resolution - The prediction market contract determining whether the answer to a question is Yes or No. Synonymous with "Settlement".

  • Verification - Used in relation to signed payloads (i.e. signature verification), not market resolution.

  • Accuracy Score - An inverted horizon-weighted Brier score. For each forecast: score = (1 - brierScore) × τ, where brierScore = (prediction - outcome)² and τ is seconds from forecast to resolution. Scores are averaged per market, then across all markets. Higher is better—rewarding accurate, early predictions.