Glossary
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Question - Something that can be resolved to Yes or No after a specific time.
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Question Groups - Contains one or many questions. Questions can exist without being in a group.
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Categories - Displayed as "Focus Areas" in the Sapience app (e.g., Crypto, Weather, Geopolitics).
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Forecast - A question with a probability (0-100%) and an optional comment submitted onchain.
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Pick - A question paired with a predicted resolution (Yes or No).
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Prediction - Consists of a wager amount and one or many picks.
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Wager - Collateral staked on a prediction.
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USDe - Ethena's reward-bearing synthetic dollar. wUSDe (Wrapped USDe) is the ERC-20 token used by prediction market contracts on Ethereal.
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Auction - The system in which prediction market participants bid on taking the opposite side of a prediction.
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Requester/Responder - Requesters create auctions and responders bid in them. The requester stakes their wager amount on all of their picks being correct with a signed payload from a responder who predicts at least one pick will be incorrect.
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Predictor/Counterparty - In positions, the predictor submits the outcomes and wins if every predicted outcome is correct; the counterparty takes the opposite side. Some contract flows and auction docs still refer to maker/taker (maker = responder or limit-order creator).
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Resolution - The prediction market contract determining whether the answer to a question is Yes or No. Synonymous with "Settlement".
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Verification - Used in relation to signed payloads (i.e. signature verification), not market resolution.
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Accuracy Score - An inverted horizon-weighted Brier score. For each forecast:
score = (1 - brierScore) × τ, wherebrierScore = (prediction - outcome)²andτis seconds from forecast to resolution. Scores are averaged per market, then across all markets. Higher is better—rewarding accurate, early predictions.